  
   
     Understanding Rating Agencies beyond the Sub-Prime 
      Meltdown 
    London, UK - 24 August 2007, 16:05 GMT  
   
  Dear ATCA Colleagues 
  [Please note that the views presented by individual contributors 
    are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. 
    ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.] 
     
    We are grateful to:  
     
    * Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for 
    "Understanding Rating Agencies beyond the Sub-Prime Meltdown;" 
    * The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, 
    UK, for "Asymmetric Knowledge Risk -- Insurance 
    Lessons for Sub-Prime Contagion;" 
    * Anthony Whitehouse based in Coppet and Geneva, Switzerland, for "High 
    Credit Ratings and Breakdown of Trust;" and 
    * John Pickering, Vice-Chairman, Labour Finance and Industry Group, based 
    in London and Tunbridge Wells, UK, for "Role 
    of Auditors;" 
     
    in response to the ATCA QUERY: Role of Credit Rating 
    Agencies. 
     
    Dr Harald Malmgren is Chief Executive of Malmgren Global and also currently 
    the Chairman of the Cordell Hull Institute in Washington, DC, a private, not-for-profit 
    "think tank" which he co-founded with Lawrence Eagleburger, former 
    US Secretary of State. He is an internationally recognised expert on world 
    trade and investment flows who has worked for four US Presidents. His extensive 
    personal global network among governments, central banks, financial institutions, 
    and corporations provides a highly informed basis for his assessments of global 
    markets. At Yale University, he was a Scholar of the House and Research Assistant 
    to Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling, graduating BA summa cum laude in 1957. 
    At Oxford University, he studied under Nobel Laureate Sir John Hicks, and 
    wrote several widely referenced scholarly articles while earning a DPhil in 
    Economics in 1961. His theoretical works on information theory and business 
    organization have continued to be cited by academics over the last 45 years. 
    After Oxford, he began his academic career in the Galen Stone Chair in Mathematical 
    Economics at Cornell University. He writes: 
     
    Dear DK and Colleagues 
     
    Re: Rating Agencies -- Beyond The Sub-Prime Meltdown 
     
    In response to the ATCA Query, "Role of Credit Rating Agencies" 
    and the ATCA Research and Analysis Wing contribution, "Asymmetric Knowledge 
    Risk -- Insurance Lessons for Sub-Prime Contagion," please consider my 
    submission on rating agencies, which is meant to provide a foundation for 
    further Socratic dialogue in regard to this vital topic. 
     
    [CONTINUES] 
    [ATCA Membership] 
   
    Harald Malmgren 
     
    Dr Harald Malmgren commenced his career in government service under President 
    John F Kennedy, working with the Pentagon in revamping the Defense Department's 
    military and procurement strategies. When President Lyndon B Johnson took 
    office, Dr Malmgren was asked to join the newly organised office of the US 
    Trade Representative in the President's staff, where he had broad negotiating 
    responsibility as the first Assistant US Trade Representative. He left government 
    service in 1969, to direct research at the Overseas Development Council, and 
    to act as trade adviser to the US Senate Finance Committee. At that time, 
    he authored International Economic Peacekeeping, which many trade experts 
    believe provided the blueprint for global trade liberalisation in the Tokyo 
    Round of the 1970s and the Uruguay Round of the 1980s. In 1971-72 he also 
    served as principal adviser to the OECD Wise Men's Group on opening world 
    markets, under the chairmanship of Jean Rey, and he served as a senior adviser 
    to President Richard M Nixon on foreign economic policies. President Nixon 
    then appointed him to be the principal Deputy US Trade Representative, with 
    the rank of Ambassador. In this role he served Presidents Nixon and Ford as 
    the American government's chief trade negotiator in dealing with all nations. 
    While in USTR, he became known in Congress as the father of "fast track" 
    trade negotiating authority, which he first introduced into the historically 
    innovative Trade Act of 1974. He was the first official of any government 
    to call for global negotiations on liberalisation of financial services, and 
    he was the first US official to call for the establishment of an Asian-Pacific 
    Economic Cooperation arrangement, known in more recent years as APEC. 
     
    In 1975 Dr Malmgren left government service, and was appointed Woodrow Wilson 
    Fellow at the Smithsonian Institution. From the late 1970s he managed an international 
    consulting business, providing advice to many corporations, banks, investment 
    banks, and asset management institutions, as well as to Finance Ministers 
    and Prime Ministers of many governments on financial markets, trade, and currencies. 
    He has also been an adviser to subsequent US Presidents, as well as to a number 
    of prominent American politicians of both parties. Over the years, he has 
    continued writing many publications both in economic theory and in public 
    policy and markets.  
  [ENDS] 
   
    
    We are grateful to: 
       
      * Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA 
      for "Understanding Rating Agencies beyond the Sub-Prime Meltdown;" 
       
      * The ATCA Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, 
      UK, for "Asymmetric Knowledge Risk and Market 
      Deadlock;" 
      * Anthony Whitehouse based in Coppet and Geneva, Switzerland, for "High 
      Credit Ratings and Breakdown of Trust;" 
      * John Pickering, Vice-Chairman, Labour Finance and Industry Group, based 
      in London and Tunbridge Wells, UK, for "Role 
      of Auditors;" 
      * The ATCA Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, 
      UK, for "ATCA QUERY: Role of Credit Rating 
      Agencies;" 
      . Peter Tasker, Founding Partner, Arcus Investment, based in Tokyo, Japan, 
      for "Resilience of Corporate Profits & 
      Sub-Prime Fiasco -- Global View from Japan;" 
      . Daniel Morler, Head of Middle East, LGT Private Bank, based in Vaduz, 
      Liechtenstein, for "Human Factor, Information 
      Lag, Geo-Politics and Central Banks;" 
       
      . Justin Urquhart Stewart, Director, Seven Investment Management, London, 
      UK, for "Pride Before the Fall -- Those Who Don't Know that they 
      Don't Know;" 
      . Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial 
      Times, London, UK, for "To Cut or Not to 
      Cut: Federal Reserve must Prolong the Party;" 
      . The Hon Al McDonald, Chairman and CEO, Avenir Group, from Michigan, USA, 
      for "Balancing The Role of Management in Extreme 
      Financial Turbulence." 
      . The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Subprime 
      Crisis Spreads Across Regions and Financial Sectors;"  
      * Hervé de Carmoy, European Vice-Chairman, Trilateral Commission, 
      based in Paris, France, for "Role of Large 
      Financial Institutions in Fuelling Crisis;" 
      * Dr Jim Walker, Chief Economist, CLSA, based in Hong Kong for "China 
      Chaos and Subprime Butterfly;" 
      . Ashutosh Sheshabalaya, CEO, India-Advisory, based in Brussels, EU, and 
      Bassilly, Belgium, for "India turns History 
      Upside Down;" 
      . John Elkington, Chief Entrepreneur, SustainAbility, based in London, UK, 
      and returning from India, for "Mother Convulsion 
      - India's Third Liberation;" 
      . Stephen Lendman, based in Chicago, Illinois, USA, for "Slow 
      Motion Train Wreck" via Ashok Khosla, Chairman, Development 
      Alternatives, New Delhi, India;  
      . The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Market 
      Convulsions;" 
       
      . Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA 
      for "Federal Reserve's Changed Focus;" 
      . Bill Emmott, Director, UK-Japan 21st Century Group, based in London and 
      Somerset, UK, for "Japan's Strong Yen;" 
       
      * Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA 
      for "The Asymmetric Loss of Trust and Chain 
      Reaction;"  
      . The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Public 
      Inquisition of Credit Rating Agencies may Accelerate Downturn;" 
       
      . Dr George Feiger, President and CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based 
      in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Watch 
      out for Dramatic Winners;" 
      * The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Systemic 
      Risk & Sectoral Meltdown: Heightened Correlation and Deleveraging;" 
      . Rudi Bogni, Chairman, Medinvest, and Director, Old Mutual, from Basel, 
      Switzerland, for, "Non-Stop Central Banks' 
      Intervention;" 
      . Dr Ravi Batra, Professor of Economics, Southern Methodist University, 
      Dallas, Texas, USA, for, "Towards a Global 
      Economic Crisis?;" 
      . Aurora Carlson, Founder, Open One Center, based on the West Coast, Sweden, 
      for "The Coming Storm of Change;" 
       
      . The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Large 
      Quake hits Quants as Computer-Driven Quantitative Hedge Funds Short-Circuit;" 
       
      * Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA 
      for "Prolonged Credit Market Correction Ahead;" 
      . Prof Dr Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group, based in 
      Frankfurt, Germany, for "Economic Consequences 
      of The Sub-Prime Crisis;" 
      . Anthony Whitehouse based in Coppet and Geneva, Switzerland, for "Regulators, 
      Hedge Fund Lending and Cross-Selling;" 
      . The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Perfect 
      Storm: Credit Freeze and Distress Selling by Hedge Funds;" 
       
      . Dr George Feiger, based in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Two 
      Faces of the Same Coin;" 
      * The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, for "Contagion 
      and Systemic Risk? ECB Injects Record Euro 95bn post Major Disturbance;" 
       
      . The ATCA Editorial Team, for "Flight to Quality 
      as Markets finally Appreciate Risk;" 
      . Robert McNally, Chairman, London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction 
      Group, for "Erosion of Commercial Real Estate 
      as a Solid Asset Class;" 
      . Alexander Hoare, CEO, C Hoare and Co, Private Bankers, based in the City 
      of London, for "Destructive 
      Creativity, Leverage and The Derivatives Market;" and 
      . Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, for 
      "The Fear of Central Bankers -- Flight from 
      Illiquidity, Derivatives and Heightened Risk of Contagion;" 
       
      in response to, "Are the Currency Markets Warning 
      that there is Trouble Ahead? The Precipitous Decline of the US Dollar and 
      its Impact on the World." 
    * Denotes ATCA QUERY: Role of Credit Rating Agencies  
    
    We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank 
      you. 
    Best wishes 
     
      For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency 
      Alliance (ATCA) 
       
   
   
     
       
         
           
             
              
              
               
              ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency 
                Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 
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              The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily 
                representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please 
                do not forward or use the material circulated without permission 
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